文章来源:科研办公室 作者:黄倩文 张国兴 审核:刘亚军 发布时间:2023年05月22日 点击数: 次 字号:【


题   目:Extrapolative Beliefs and Financial Decisions: Causal Evidence from Renewable Energy Financing(外推信念和金融决策:来自可再生能源融资的因果证据)

主讲人:秦   雨 副教授

主持人:张国兴 教   授

时   间:2023年5月26日(周五)10:00-12:00

地   点:腾讯会议(会议ID:751 450 743,密码:031999)


How do expectation biases causally affect households’ financial decisions? We exploit a unique setting and study the repayment decision in solar loans, in which households borrow to purchase and install solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Electricity production–the benefit that solar panels generate–primarily depends on sunshine duration. This creates exogenous within-person across-period variation in recent signals that borrowers observe and thereby expectations of future electricity production. We find that a one-standard-deviation decrease in sunshine duration in the week right before the repayment date leads to a 20.8% increase of delinquency, even though deviated past sunshine duration does not predict that in the future. Survey evidence shows that agents make more positive forecasts of future electricity production after experiencing longer sunshine duration in the past week. We examine a battery of alternative explanations and rule out mechanisms based on liquidity constraints and wealth effects.


秦雨,新加坡国立大学商学院房地产系讲席长聘副教授,康奈尔大学应用经济学博士,主要研究领域为环境经济学、城市经济学。担任国际期刊China Economic Review 共同主编;Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 副主编;Journal of Economic Geography编委会委员。研究发表在Journal of Labor Economics, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Nature Climate Change, Nature Human Behaviour, Nature Water等杂志。